Who will die on tonight’s “Pretty Little Liars” Halloween special?

Welcome, lesbos, to the day of reckoning! Yes, oh, yes, after far too many months away, Pretty Little Liars returns tonight for a haunting Halloween special in which another Rosewoodian will bite the dust. A couple of weeks ago, ABC Family released this photo and then ran away laughing maniacally into the night like a regular old Mona Vanderwaal.

And so now it’s time to focus all of our sleuthing energies on the murder question. Who will die on the A-Train?

Emily, Spencer, Aria, Hanna (Chance of Death: 1 in 1,000,000) — Come on, now. Pretty Little Liars doesn’t work without the Pretty Little Liars. I’m sure they’ll suffer all kinds of torture and trauma on the Halloween Express, but they’ll make it out of their with their limbs still attached to their bodies.

Caleb Rivers (Chance of Death: 1 in 5,000) — You’ve got to think Caleb learned his lesson about being careful when he literally took a gun to a knife fight and got himself shot in the chest. We spent the full summer finale wondering if he was alive, which probably means he’s safe for at least another half-season.

Paige McCullers (Chance of Death: 1 in 500,000)Marlene King & Co. are equal opportunity killers, so we’ve got to believe that after Maya’s death, lesbians can breathe easy, at least for a while. And anyway, you know Paige is totally wearing kevlar under her Halloween tuxedo. Being kidnapped and stuffed in a car trunk and duct taped inside a closet by your girlfriend’s dead girlfriend’s fake cousin is enough to make anyone buy a bulletproof vest.

Toby Cavanaugh (Chance of Death: 1 in 25) — Of all the true contenders for tonight’s death, Toby’s has the potential to pack the biggest emotional punch. He’s beloved by Emily, in loved by Spencer, and Boo Radley Van Cullened by AfterEllen readers. His death would mean that 50 percent of the Liars had lost a lover. And also, a posthumous discovery of his A-ness would drive Spencer to a bad, bad place, which would make for great, great drama. His death would touch all the Liars’ and viewers’ lives, is what I am saying. And it would bust the show’s mystery-making wide open for season 3B.

Noel Kahn (Chance of Death: 1 in 50) — While Noel’s always-smiling face and general Chuck Bassery always adds an element of perverse creepery to PLL, he’s really only ever been a pawn in Jenna and Ali’s and Mona’s games. Killing him would make us go “whoa!” without changing the show’s mythology too much.

Jenna Marshall (Chance of Death: 1 in 10,000) — We haven’t even begun to unravel Jenna’s impossibly dense web of secrets and lies. She’s got a lot of dastardly revelation left to give. She’s not going anywhere.

Jason DiLaurentis (Chance of Death: 1 in 100) — If Jason goes away, where will everyone buy their weed? And who will be left to dig so many holes at so many witching hours? And who will show up every third episode with more of Ali’s forgotten trinkets and random buried shit? And who will have hate sex with CeCe Drake? Jason’s probably pretty safe. He’s holding a lot of answers and a lot of shovels.

Lucas Gottesman (Chance of Death: 1 in 50) — Lucas is the Noel of Nerds, which means, of course, that we’re much more attached to him. But like Noel, his death would be a way to make the show scarier without destroying any of the Liars’ lives. And plus, it would be super interesting for Caleb to find Lucas’ journals and realize Lucas was in love with him all these years.

Garrett Reynolds (Chance of Death: 1 in 25) — Now that we know Garrett didn’t murder Maya or Ali, most of his creepiness has worn off. He doesn’t have any ties to any of the Liars anymore, but killing him off would be a good way to frame them for another murder.

Ezra Fitz (Chance of Death: 1 in Infinity) — Bitch, please. During the summer finale, every Liars’ lover was either kidnapped, shot, or “A,” while Ezra sat at home and ate bundt cake and looked at adorable photos of cuddling kittens on BuzzFeed.

But enough of my theories. I want to hear your theories. Who do you think is going to snuff it on tonight’s PLL?

Tell us your whys in the comments!